Which All-Star Pack Sneaker Has Been Most Profitable?

This is the first Campless post co-written by one of our fans.  Nico Atienza worked closely with us on all aspects of this article, including performing significant data analysis.  Perhaps you'll see more of Nico's work in the future.  (Or perhaps we'll let the number of retweets determine his fate).

You know what’s nice about having lots of data?  You can choose the most relevant for any given time or event.  And there is no event more relevant to the time called now than the 2014 NBA All Star Weekend in New Orleans.

That means, of course, a data retrospective on the Nike Basketball packs of the last two ASGs.  In 2012, the hype machine was on a trillion (actual recorded data point) with the release of the now infamous Galaxy Pack.  Last year we saw the multi-named Extraterrestrial / Area 72 Pack.  If you’re reading this, I’ll bet you have at least one pair from one of these packs. We’ll be looking at four from each:

  • Galaxy:  LeBron IX, Kobe VII, KD IV, Foamposite One
  • Area 72:  LeBron X, KD V, Kobe 8+, Barkley Posite Max

Other blogs are certainly doing the same thing, in various form.  Our favorite so far has been the SneakerNews piece which used a poll to let readers vote on which ASG sneakers they like the best – and thus created some data of their own.

For us, there are myriad ways we can dive into the data.  Resell price was too easy, but the concept of value is important so we decided to analyze “Resell Price Premium”, which is calculated as [Resell Price minus Retail Price, divided by Retail Price].  This could also be called margin, or markup.

All Star Packs

Methodology:

  • Data set is eBay sold auctions for mens sneakers in new condition (deadstock) only
  • Timeframe is May 1, 2012 through January 1, 2014. Note, this creates a limitation because the Galaxy Pack was released in February 2012, but our data does not begin until May.
  • Resell premium percentage is represented by the blue line on the above chart.  The Y-axis (vertical) scale represents this percentage, which range from 0% to 400%.  The X-axis (horizontal) plots each of the 8 sneakers analyzed in ascending order of its resell premium
Insights & Stats:
  • Key Insight:  Although the Galaxy Foam has the highest average resale price (which we all knew), it is actually not the most profitable – it does not have the highest resell price premium.  That honor belongs to the KD IV which, priced at only $95 retail, has a 376% premium
  • The Kobe 8+ had the highest resale premium for the Area 72 pack at 54%
  • We all know the Galaxy Pack was more limited than the Area 72 pack, but did you know how much more limited?  With 9 months fewer sales, the Area 72 pack sold approximately 4 times as many pairs.  Does this ratio hold for retail volume?  I don’t know; we’d need to ask Matt Powell.
  • Knowing that limited supply often drives high resell price premium, this fits logically when we see the premium of the Area 72 pack ranging from 39% – 54%, while the Galaxy pack was 92% – 376%
  • The most expensive single sale was, not surprisingly, courtesy of the Galaxy Foam. It went for $2,515 which translates to an out-of-this-world 1018% premium above its retail price

It’ll be interesting to re-run this analysis in 12 months (or maybe even three) after the NOLA Gumbo League Pack has made it’s mark on the secondary market.

Which of this year’s ASG drops do you think will have the highest resell price premium?

  1. Kobe 9 Elite Maestro – Retail price $225
  2. Lebron 11 Gator King – Retail price$220
  3. KD 6 Illusion – Retail price $150